07CAIRO858

VZCZCXR04985

PP RUEHBC RUEHDE RUEHKUK RUEHROV
DE RUEHEG #0858 0850636
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 260636Z MAR 07
FM AMEMBASSY CAIRO

TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 4248
INFO RUEHXK/ARAB ISRAELI COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RUEHEE/ARAB LEAGUE COLLECTIVE PRIORITY

UNCLAS CAIRO 000858

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE

SIPDIS

NSC FOR DORAN AND WATERS

E.O. 12958: N/A

TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM EG

SUBJECT: CAIRO ON THE EVE OF THE NATIONAL REFERENDUM
REF: CAIRO 816

SENSITIVE BUT UNCLASSIFIED. NOT FOR INTERNET DISTRIBUTION.

J.1 . (SBU) As the country readies for the rushed March 2 6
referendum on President Hosni Mubarak's constitutional
amendments package, the government apparatus has swung
belatedly into gear to raise public awareness about the
event. All Egyptian TV channels - terrestrial and satellite
- broadcast advertisements on March 24 and 25 calling on
citizens to, "have a share in shaping the future of Egypt,"
by going to the polls. Several channels also featured clips
of patriotic songs, and interviews with ruling party
officials on the constitutional amendments. The Grand Shaykh
of Al Azhar (the highest religious authority for Egyptian
Muslims) urged Egyptians to participate in the referendum
during a March 23 press conference, stressing that it is a
"religious duty" for Muslims to vote. Egyptian TV also
carried a March 25 Mubarak speech at Assiyut University, in
which he exhorted Egyptians to go to the polls, and stated
that the amendments, "represent an unprecedented development
of our constitutional infrastructure, which will change the
face of, and open new doors in front of, the political,
parliamentarian and partisan lives in Egypt." In a
rhetorical swipe at critics of the amendments, Mubarak also
said, "I will never relinquish Egypt's interests,
sovereignty, and independent will. I do not accept any
pressures, dictations or conditions. I will not be dragged
into jeopardizing the future of this homeland."

1L2 . (SBU) On March 25, just one day before the referendum, all
major newspapers ran pages dedicated to educating voters
about the referendum, what the constitution is, and how to
vote, but no paper carried the text of the amendments being
voted on. Prominent human rights activist Bahey El Din
Hassan was quoted on that topic in the leading daily Al Masry
Al Yom: "What will citizens vote for if they are not aware of
what the amendments are?" Many Cairo neighborhoods are
festooned in home-made banners (apparently hung by local NDP
parliamentarians, whose names are featured prominently),
exhorting Egyptians to "Join the Coronation of Democracy -
Vote in the Referendum!" and "Vote Yes to the Amendments,

Which Will Bring Stability and Investment!" Meanwhile,
unscientific polling of several local fruit vendors in
downtown Cairo, conducted by poloff, demonstrated negligible
popular awareness of the referendum ( "Vote? Vote about what?

Is it another presidential election?").

1[3 . (SBU) All major opposition forces, including the Wafd and
Taggamu parties (which were the last to announce their
intent), have called for a boycott of the referendum.

Activists attempted to gather in central Cairo ' s Liberation
Square for a Kef aya-organized evening protest on March 25.

The police presence around the square was overwhelming hours
before the planned start of the protest, with 55 large

security trucks filled with riot police ringing the area, and
when poloff observed the square an hour after the planned
start of the protest, it was clear no demonstration had
materialized. Poloff observed a small protest - 30-45 people
- at the nearby press syndicate, with demonstrators chanting
"Down, down with Mubarak," under the watchful eyes of several
hundred policemen. Independent newspapers report that the
Interior Ministry has canceled all leave for officers and
policemen until after the referendum.

^4. (SBU) Egyptian civil society groups continue to scramble
to prepare volunteer monitors to deploy on March 26. The
quasi-governmental National Council for Human Rights (NCHR)
announced that it will open an operations center to
coordinate its coverage of the referendum. NCHR also
declared that it would mobilize 330 lawyers to observe the
polling. The exact number of civil society monitors planning
to deploy remains uncertain due to the last-minute efforts to
mobilize monitors. Several civil society leaders with whom
we spoke on March 25 expressed increasing worry about the
GOE ' s tough approach towards demonstrators . One such leader
said that he anticipated spending referendum day "trying to
get the protesters out of jail"; other activists expressed
fears to poloff that the GOE would target bloggers and other
youthful activists for arrests.

RICCIARDONE